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News articleSeeking Alpha· November 7, 2025

Century Aluminum projects Q4 adjusted EBITDA of $170M-$180M while advancing Mt. Holly expansion

View original at seekingalpha.com
Century Aluminum projects Q4 adjusted EBITDA of $170M-$180M while advancing Mt…
Opening lines of the source · Seeking Alpha · short snapshot — read the full document at the original

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The claims Via News extracted from this document. We point to the source; we don't replace it.

  • Net sales for Q3 2025 were $632 million, a $4 million increase primarily due to higher realized Midwest premium, partially offset by lower shipments

    80% confidence

  • Jamalco weathered Hurricane Melissa catastrophic storm, protecting the refinery from any significant damage and most importantly, without suffering a single injury

    80% confidence

  • Mt. Holly restart total project spend should be somewhere in the neighborhood of $50 million, with the additional volume generating about $25 million in additional EBITDA per quarter

    80% confidence

  • Production has restarted at Jamalco refinery and full production is expected to resume within weeks with no material financial impact from the storm

    80% confidence

  • Adjusted EBITDA was $101 million for Q3 2025, mainly driven by the increased Midwest premium price

    80% confidence

  • There is a clear stated preference for buybacks as the most likely form of capital return once targets are reached

    80% confidence

  • Q4 anticipated increases in both LME and Midwest premiums will contribute approximately $65 million incremental EBITDA over Q3 levels

    80% confidence

  • Q3 2025 reported net income was $15 million or $0.15 per share, with adjusted net income of $58 million or $0.56 per share excluding exceptional items

    80% confidence

  • Insurance policy limits are high enough to cover both the property and business interruption costs of the Grundartangi outage up to and including the 11-12 month timeline

    80% confidence

  • Management maintains net debt target of $300 million, anticipating reaching this goal early in 2026

    80% confidence

  • The Supreme Court case does not affect Section 232 tariffs

    80% confidence

  • Mt. Holly restart is expected to begin in Q2 2026 and be completed by the end of June, with production ramping up throughout the second quarter

    80% confidence

  • At current realized prices, we expect Q4 adjusted EBITDA in the range of $170 million to $180 million

    80% confidence

  • Timeline for Grundartangi restart is dependent on how quickly replacement transformers can be manufactured, shipped and installed, with current estimates at 11 to 12 months

    80% confidence

  • We now expect that we will see an approximately $0.05 year-over-year increase across our 2026 billet sales, which should generate an additional $30 million of 2026 EBITDA

    80% confidence

  • Century Aluminum is exploring repairs to reduce Grundartangi downtime and expects insurance coverage for these losses

    80% confidence

  • Outstanding global market conditions exist with rising aluminum prices and persistently challenged supply side dynamics

    80% confidence

  • The company is not for sale. We are very excited about our prospects

    80% confidence

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