How the Supreme Court tariff ruling tests Fed independence
View original at finance.yahoo.comHow the Supreme Court tariff ruling tests Fed independence The bitter clash over global tariffs has exposed more than a deepening U.S. trade policy dispute from Main Street to Wall Street…
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American consumers will be made better off by tariffs in the long run
80% confidenceNew York Fed research was shoddy and wouldn't be accepted in a first semester econ class
80% confidenceFed will remain firmly independent; should never confuse selection with independence
80% confidenceNew York Fed tariff study reinforces Fed's independence and signals economic assessments are grounded in data rather than political pressure
80% confidenceWhile U.S. has experienced moderating inflation, it will be range-bound for near future; further rate reductions will be on hold for first half of 2026
80% confidenceAmerican importers and consumers bear nearly the entire cost of the 2025 tariffs
80% confidenceWhite House dispute on tariff study is really about monetary policy; Fed is doing best to make best assessment of economy based on data and analysis
80% confidenceU.S. firms and consumers continue to bear the bulk of the economic burden of the high tariffs imposed in 2025, approximately 90%
80% confidence30% of the 2025 tariffs would be absorbed by businesses and 70% passed on to consumers
80% confidenceWhite House attacks on New York Fed study are just another step to try to compromise the Fed's independence; over the past year there have been multiple attempts
80% confidencePotential of Fed losing independence would not be good for U.S. equity and bond markets, especially if Federal Funds Rate were cut dramatically
80% confidenceWhile Fed independence loss might help boost U.S. economy in short term, longer-term implications are negative including inflation returning, capital flight, lower dollar, equity declines, and credit spread widening
80% confidenceAfter Supreme Court ruled tariffs illegal, U.S. government may have to refund estimated $168 billion; $259 billion in tariff revenue collected since April
80% confidenceNew York Fed tariff study is an embarrassment and the people associated with it should be disciplined
80% confidenceRole of Fed will change because it needs to change, and will be more aligned with current administration; this is nothing new
80% confidenceTariff pass-through to U.S. import prices is almost 100%, so the United States is bearing a large share of the costs
80% confidence