Britain’s biggest weapons maker surges after Trump military pledge
View original at uk.finance.yahoo.comBritain’s biggest weapons maker surges after Trump military pledge Shares in UK weapons maker BAE Systems surged after Donald Trump vowed to boost military spending - Lorne Campbell/Guzelian UK-listed defence stocks surged after Donald Trump vowed to ramp up military spending after his capture of Venezuelan leader Nico…
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Market has ignored geopolitical risks and focused on the fundamentals
80% confidenceMarkets pricing in faster and larger increases in European defence spending, stronger domestic arms production and a renewed push for strategic autonomy
80% confidenceMilitary equipment is not being made fast enough
80% confidenceUS inflation December 2025 will be 3% (from 2.7% November), ending 2026 at 3.2%
80% confidenceUS will rebuild Venezuela in a very profitable way using oil revenue and will run it much longer than 3-6 months
80% confidenceRussia's shadow fleet tripled since late 2022
80% confidenceTrump move toward government intervention would create uncertainty and add to some risk premium
80% confidenceOil price forecast for 2026 is $50/barrel
80% confidenceEnforcement typically lags rhetoric on sanctions
80% confidenceUS GDP growth 2025 will be 2.1% (revised up from 1.8%)
80% confidenceGreenland's future is for Denmark/Greenland to decide
80% confidenceStarmer and EU should stop histrionics over Greenland threats
80% confidenceDeclining US imports show ongoing negative economic impact of tariffs
80% confidenceUS will not allow Venezuela to become a client state of China
80% confidenceEffective tariff rate in October was close to 14%
80% confidenceAs long as America is the dominant force in Venezuela with rule of law, US controls oil flow and that will be fine
80% confidenceSterling doing really quite well after Budget correction
80% confidenceUS will run Venezuela much longer than 3-6 months
80% confidenceGold/silver under pressure from ~$6-7bn selling on Comex futures due to Bloomberg Commodity Index rebalance
80% confidenceChevron expected to quickly grow US oil operations in Venezuela; ConocoPhillips and Exxon Mobil looking to play role
80% confidenceNorth Korea and Iran have used shadow fleets to evade UN sanctions for almost two decades
80% confidenceLabour reforms could cost commercial landlords £11bn and cause 15% property price slump
80% confidenceUS unemployment 2026 average will be 4.6%
80% confidenceShadow fleet accounts for 20% of global crude transport ships
80% confidenceEuropean defense stocks offer long-term value despite 20-40% decline since September; paradigmatic realignment in EU/Nato/UK defence policy
80% confidenceFed will cut rates twice in 2026 H1, from 3.75%-3.5% range to 3.25%-3% range (faster than market expects October for second cut)
80% confidenceIn 2026, trade could be negligible for growth overall
80% confidenceThere is a window of opportunity for Greenland independence from Denmark
80% confidence
Data points we hold from this source
| NASDAQ · index level | 23548.88 points |