Social Security's 2027 COLA Could Be the Biggest Since 2023

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• CPI-U is forecast to climb 4.2% year over year

  60% confidence

• The longer the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, the higher oil prices will climb, with a knock-on effect on overall inflation rates

  60% confidence

• Business leaders expect inflation to average 3.7% over the next 12 months, based on the Cleveland Fed's quarterly executive survey

  60% confidence

• The 2027 COLA could be the highest since the 8.7% adjustment in 2023 and would rank as the third-largest COLA since 2009

  60% confidence

• The 2027 Social Security COLA is now expected to come in at 3.9%, up from a prior forecast of 2.8%

  60% confidence

• Prices for shelter, medical services, and food all increased about 3.2% year over year, exceeding the 2.8% COLA most beneficiaries received

  60% confidence

• 62% of retirees say Social Security is a major source of revenue, the highest level recorded in the poll's 25-year history

  60% confidence

• The 2027 Social Security COLA is now projected at 4.2%, up from prior expectations of 3.2%

  60% confidence

• The CPI-W rose 3.9% year over year in April, driven by the ongoing war in Iran pushing oil prices higher

  60% confidence

Data points we hold from this source