The Stock Market's "Trump Slump" Likely Isn't Over -- and There's a Big Reason Why

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• The trailing 12-month inflation rate is projected to jump from a reported 2.4% in February to 3.16% in March

  60% confidence

• The Fed's preferred measure of inflation (Core PCE) moved up to 3.1% in January, the highest level in 22 months. That was the 59th consecutive reading above the Fed's 2% target level. There will be no Fed rate cut next week and one could make a strong case for a rate hike.

  60% confidence

• Regardless of whether the Iran war ends quickly or drags out, the inflationary effects will be felt for several quarters to come

  60% confidence

• Approximately 20% of the world's liquid petroleum needs pass through the Strait of Hormuz daily

  60% confidence

• Stock Advisor's total average return is 914% - a market-crushing outperformance compared to 184% for the S&P 500

  60% confidence

• The average S&P 500 bull market has lasted approximately 3.5 times longer than the typical S&P 500 bear market, dating back to the start of the Great Depression in September 1929: 1,011 calendar days vs. 286 calendar days

  60% confidence

• All 107 rolling 20-year periods of S&P 500 total returns from 1900-2025 generated a positive annualized total return

  60% confidence

• There's a glaring reason to believe that the ongoing 'Trump slump' in equities isn't over

  60% confidence

• The five previous times in which the Shiller P/E exceeded 30 during a continuous bull market were eventually followed by declines of at least 20% in one or more of Wall Street's major stock indexes

  60% confidence

• S&P 500 Shiller PE Ratio hits 2nd highest level in history. The highest was the Dot Com Bubble

  60% confidence

• Every game-changing technology since the mid-1990s has endured an early innings bubble-bursting event, and it's unlikely that AI is the exception to this unwritten rule

  60% confidence