US adds 64K jobs in November, Ford navigates $19.5B hit from EV pivot

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The claims Via News extracted from this document. We point to the source; we don't replace it.

• 2025 GDP growth of 1.0-1.5% YoY, described as lost year

  80% confidence

• Unemployment exhibits this really unfortunate dynamic in which it increases slowly and then rapidly

  80% confidence

• November unemployment rate going to reaffirm that making a move in December was appropriate, but it's gonna open up January

  80% confidence

• Current rate cut forecast of 1 cut in 2026

  80% confidence

• 3-month average job growth of 22,000 is well below 50,000 breakeven

  80% confidence

• Fed's going to be forced to cut sooner than people are currently pricing in

  80% confidence

• Forecasting a very strong economy for next year

  80% confidence

• Target rate normalization to 3.5% or 3.0%

  80% confidence

• Forecasts labor market weakness continuing

  80% confidence

• Would take a skeptical eye to this data because the shutdown is going to not give us a full clear picture

  80% confidence

• Real poverty line for family of four is $140,000

  80% confidence

• Jolts quits rate at the lowest levels since 2014 outside of COVID

  80% confidence

• Sees inflation at 2.5% in 2026

  80% confidence

• 2026 GDP growth of 2.3-2.5%

  80% confidence

• Something wrong in the labor market

  80% confidence

• Degree of difficulty in analyzing this jobs report is enormous with pretty big margin of error

  80% confidence

Data points we hold from this source