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Source document· July 28, 2026

Citadel Securities’ Fed Rate Hike Call Adds to Market Angst

View original at finance.yahoo.com

Citadel Securities’ Fed Rate Hike Call Adds to Market Angst (Bloomberg) -- On the eve of the Federal Reserve's policy decision, bond traders are on edge…

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A rate hike would emphatically end the forward guidance era while underscoring the Fed's independence.
60% confidence
The Fed should rip off the band aid and raise rates by half a point, gaining inflation-fighting credibility while fending off pressure from President Trump to lower borrowing costs.
60% confidence
The market is probably underestimating the probability of a Fed move on Wednesday.
60% confidence
Warsh is still kind of a wildcard, adamant about not wanting to provide forward guidance, but might inadvertently signal something.
60% confidence
There is no good reason for the Fed not to raise interest rates.
60% confidence
Warsh has set the stage for a hike; putting off the decision now would raise the probability of a 50 basis point move in September.
60% confidence