Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq jump to start week, oil slides amid Trump's warning to allies on Iran
View original at finance.yahoo.comStock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq jump to start week, oil slides amid Trump's warning to allies on Iran US stocks climbed on Monday as Wall Street weighed the likely impact of surging oil prices on the Federal Reserve's interest rate path and looked for signs of easing in the Strait of Hormuz supply disruption…
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The longer oil stays elevated, the greater the risk that inflation spillovers weaken the bond market and trigger an equity de-rating at the index level
60% confidenceMarkets seem to be pricing a largely transitory shock, but the more disruptive scenarios for global growth are underpriced
60% confidenceEarnings remain resilient, corporate balance sheets are solid, and history suggests geopolitical shocks often create opportunity rather than lasting damage
60% confidenceStocks such as Micron and Sandisk have heavily benefited from rotation out of software into memory, poised to be large beneficiary of AI boom and related drive for computing power
60% confidenceIt takes about four months to begin seeing the benefits of lower tariffs, as goods purchased at December's tariff rates are still cycling through inventory
60% confidenceLast year's forecast said chip sales would total $500 billion through 2026
60% confidenceStablecoin adoption has remained persistent independent of crypto market sentiment despite strong use-case linked to crypto capital markets
60% confidenceWhile a quick resolution to the conflict is certainly possible, the conflict extending into 2Q is an equally likely outcome, and a more protracted war cannot be ruled out
60% confidenceProfitability continues to firm for Circle, and company has plenty of embedded operating leverage
60% confidenceHigher-income consumers drove discretionary categories while lower-income shoppers tended to stock up on essential goods
60% confidenceDollar Tree grew sales across all income levels, with high-income households being fastest-growing customer cohort as consumers trade down to less expensive products
60% confidenceNvidia expects to see $1 trillion in orders of Blackwell and Vera Rubin chips through 2027
60% confidenceOverall, equities face rising correction risk as valuations are stretched and macro conditions are deteriorating at the margin. But strong fundamentals argue against a sustained bear market
60% confidenceNATO faces a 'very bad future' if they don't help break Iran's blockade of Strait of Hormuz
60% confidenceThe result is a high stakes stalemate that markets are struggling to price. Energy flows remain significantly constrained, and as long as that persists, the risk of a prolonged global energy shock remains elevated
60% confidence
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