Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq waver, oil slides as Wall Street weighs Iran war signals

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• The Iran conflict could end very soon

  60% confidence

• Expecting a hawkish response from the Fed to rising oil prices could be a mistake

  60% confidence

• Markets are global. Prices are connected. Exxon has a diversified set of supply sources to keep operations running and meet demand

  60% confidence

• The US-Israel offensive has effectively cut off Iran's naval and air capabilities

  60% confidence

• The US is very far ahead of an expected four-to-five week timeline for the Iran conflict

  60% confidence

• The war is very complete, pretty much

  60% confidence

• Demand for HPE's products and solutions was strong, with orders increasing double digits year over year across all segments

  60% confidence

• Aramco can ramp up oil shipments in days not weeks once Strait of Hormuz normalizes

  60% confidence

• All Aramco areas are safe and operating normally, with Ras Tanura starting up following precautionary shutdown after drone interception

  60% confidence

• The US hasn't won enough and will not allow a terrorist regime to hold the world hostage and attempt to stop the globe's oil supply

  60% confidence

• Exxon has a diversified set of supply sources to keep operations running and continue to meet demand

  60% confidence

• The Middle East is a concentrated source of supply through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow passage that much of the world supply has to travel through

  60% confidence

• An oil tanker has exploded near Abu Dhabi

  60% confidence

• We now have a soft labor market, moderately elevated inflation and more modest fiscal support, setting us up for a more dovish Fed response if the oil shock is persistent

  60% confidence

• When Russia invaded Ukraine, the u-rate was below 4%, core PCE inflation was over 5%, payrolls were running at 500k/month and consumers were flush with Covid stimulus cash. By contrast, we now have a soft labor market, moderately elevated inflation and more modest fiscal support. This sets us up for a more dovish Fed response if the oil shock is persistent

  60% confidence

• Aramco can ramp up oil production in days and not weeks once Strait of Hormuz reopens

  60% confidence

• The Iran conflict could end very soon

  60% confidence

• Expecting a hawkish response from the Fed to rising oil prices could be a mistake

  60% confidence

• Exxon is focused on making sure people operating JVs in different countries have been safely evacuated

  60% confidence

• Will not allow a terrorist regime to hold the world hostage and attempt to stop the globe's oil supply

  60% confidence

• Context matters. Compared to 2022, the labor market isn't as hot, inflation isn't as high, and fiscal support isn't as large

  60% confidence

• The US-Israel offensive has effectively cut off Iran's naval and air capabilities

  60% confidence

• The Iran war threatens catastrophic consequences for oil and the global economy

  60% confidence

• Exxon is focused on making sure people in Middle East JV operations have been safely evacuated and remain safe

  60% confidence

• A supply shock fattens the tails of policy distribution and puts larger risks on both hikes and cuts

  60% confidence

• The US would not relent until Iran is defeated

  60% confidence

• Demand for HPE products and solutions was strong, with orders increasing double digits year over year across all segments

  60% confidence

• The Iran war is the biggest crisis the region's oil and gas industry has faced

  60% confidence

• If the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened soon, consequences will be catastrophic for the global economy

  60% confidence

• The Middle East is a concentrated source of supply through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow passage that much of the world supply has to travel through

  60% confidence