‘If they rise, they rise’: Trump has zero concern for spiking US gas prices — says Iran operation ‘far more important’

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• Trump outlined a four-to-five-week timeline for the military campaign

  80% confidence

• Failing to act on rising gas prices would be catastrophic for Republicans heading into the November midterms

  80% confidence

• In today's American economy, spikes in oil prices do not present the same significant downside risk to top-line economic growth or inflation as they did a half century ago

  80% confidence

• He was no longer as confident in his previous call for a rate cut this year, noting that with the geopolitical events, we need to get a lot more data in

  80% confidence

• It remains unclear whether the price increase will persist because the conflict is still in its early stages

  80% confidence

• A $50-per-barrel spike in oil would add a full percentage point to second-quarter inflation

  80% confidence

• A closure of the Strait of Hormuz pushing WTI crude to $100 per barrel could add roughly 1.3 percentage points to headline inflation at its peak, with core inflation rising by about 0.3 percentage points

  80% confidence

• Gas prices will drop very rapidly when this is over, and if they rise, they rise, but this is far more important than having gasoline prices go up a little bit

  80% confidence

• The conflict could affect the near-term inflation outlook. We'll have to see how persistent this is and how long this is, but it would have an effect on overall inflation

  80% confidence

• Production cuts could approach 6 million barrels per day by the end of next week if the Strait remains closed

  80% confidence

• Qatar's energy minister warned that crude could hit $150 per barrel if tankers can't get through the Strait of Hormuz

  80% confidence

• Trump expressed confidence that the Strait of Hormuz will remain open

  80% confidence

• A sustained 10% rise in oil prices would boost headline CPI by about 0.28 percentage points and core CPI by just 0.04, and in scenarios where oil stays elevated for several months, year-over-year headline inflation could temporarily climb back toward 3%

  80% confidence