Starbucks (SBUX) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

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• China joint venture expected to close in Spring 2026 subject to regulatory approval

  80% confidence

• First positive year-over-year transaction growth in 8 quarters for both Rewards and non-Rewards customers

  80% confidence

• Net new stores guidance of 600-650 globally for FY2026, including 150-175 U.S. company-operated and 450-500 international (with China approximately half)

  80% confidence

• Target to complete 1,000+ coffeehouse uplifts by end of 2026

  80% confidence

• Thousands of identified U.S. sites for new Ristretto format stores

  80% confidence

• EPS guidance range of $2.15-$2.40 for FY2026

  80% confidence

• Brand metrics including affinity, trust, and value perception are all improving

  80% confidence

• Approximately one-third of North America operating margin pressure in Q1 from product/distribution cost inflation related to tariffs and elevated coffee pricing

  80% confidence

• Menu reduced by 25-30% as part of Back to Starbucks initiatives

  80% confidence

• $2B cost reduction target over next 2-3 years focusing on G&A, procurement, and technology efficiency

  80% confidence

• 650 pilot stores under Back to Starbucks plan outperform fleet by approximately 200 basis points in comparable store sales, all transaction-driven

  80% confidence

• China joint venture expected to be approximately 40 basis points accretive to consolidated margins annually

  80% confidence

• Customer feedback shows lowest complaint levels in 2+ years with improved speed and convenience perception

  80% confidence

• Global comparable store sales guidance of +3% or better for FY2026

  80% confidence

• If joint venture structure assumed for full year FY2026, expect slightly lower revenue/comps, slightly better margins, and $0.02-$0.03 EPS dilution

  80% confidence

• Operating margins expected to show slight year-over-year growth with improvement in second half of FY2026

  80% confidence

• Green Apron service standard has improved throughput with cafe and drive-through performance under 4-minute targets

  80% confidence

• All age cohorts and income groups increased visitation in Q1 FY2026

  80% confidence

• U.S. comparable store sales guidance of +3% or better for FY2026

  80% confidence

• Protein platform showing high trial and repeat rates with high incrementality

  80% confidence

Data points we hold from this source