5 big analyst AI moves: ASML top semis pick for 2026, Adobe downgraded

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• Alibaba is China's Best AI Enabler

  80% confidence

• 3nm carries the highest lithography intensity and is expected to underpin most GPUs and AI accelerators over the next two years

  80% confidence

• Alicloud revenue growth expected to accelerate to at least 35% year on year

  80% confidence

• E-commerce segment may remain under pressure in first half of fiscal 2027 due to a high base

  80% confidence

• Peak optimism may not emerge until high-profile, AI-focused companies begin to list publicly

  80% confidence

• China is unlikely to accept losses quietly and could impose rare-earth export bans and dump U.S. Treasuries

  80% confidence

• Expected earnings growth for ASML is 18% compound annual rate over 2025–27, above 15% consensus view

  80% confidence

• Customer management revenue growth slowing sharply to 3% YoY versus 10% in Q2

  80% confidence

• Adobe has the weakest competitive positioning among HubSpot, Salesforce, and Adobe in front-office software

  80% confidence

• Adobe's shares lack a clear catalyst even though valuation appears reasonable

  80% confidence

• Consolidated adjusted EBITA forecast to fall 45% YoY to Rmb30bn

  80% confidence

• China e-commerce EBITA excluding QC projected to decline by 3%

  80% confidence

• Application software is not structurally broken but investor sentiment will remain cautious into 2026

  80% confidence

• Amazon has underappreciated benefits from 2025 capacity additions

  80% confidence

• EBITA margins for Alicloud forecast to remain stable at around 9%

  80% confidence

• The market is underestimating the scale of planned DRAM capacity expansion

  80% confidence

• Trump's bromance with Xi could go awry if Beijing moves against Taiwan

  80% confidence

• Not predicting Taiwan conflict will happen in 2026, but Trump's actions in Venezuela increase the likelihood of a reaction from China

  80% confidence

• Three largest DRAM producers are adding up to 250,000 wafers per month of greenfield capacity in 2026

  80% confidence

• Artificial intelligence remains the dominant theme for internet and eCommerce stocks heading into 2026

  80% confidence

• Competition intensifying across creative software market, most evident among smaller businesses, students, and freelancers

  80% confidence

• Core e-commerce businesses have started to worsen due to weak consumption

  80% confidence

• Google is best positioned across AI

  80% confidence

• 2026 and 2027 are big years for EUV and for ASML

  80% confidence

• Near-term risks tied to DRAM technology shifts have eased as concerns around 4F² structure appear delayed

  80% confidence

• Litho intensity for 1c is 28%, much higher than previous nodes of 20–24%

  80% confidence

• The notion of Xi choosing 2026 to assert control over Taiwan is no longer as far-fetched as Asian leaders and investors had hoped

  80% confidence

• Chinese control of TSMC and rare-earth resources would be quite a bargaining chip in U.S. trade talks

  80% confidence

• Agentic AI could enhance shopping experiences, advertising effectiveness and conversion rates over time for Amazon

  80% confidence

• Do not envision a clear catalyst for Adobe stock

  80% confidence

Data points we hold from this source